"weekday warrior..."


 


i just got into work...and i have work to do...just great


hungover...


 


cendrillon sucks - they call it flip food...rather its asian fusion...(but thanks for dinner c)


pravda on a wednesday always proves to be rough...the original plan was to order a bottle of goose...but we opted for 2 bottles of "jewel of russia" and some Polish vodka...


so as per my post yesterday...last nights dinner revolved around how much ass greenspan must get...i really don't remember the details of the arguement...but for a certain sum of money...people were willing to enter the realm of homo-alan...


so i looked up a picture of greenspans wife this morning...she's ugly...blegh


larry king's wife is hotter...and geraldo's new wife is HOTTER~


i have blurry vision.


 


note to esther and li jung:


bumped into both yor men...hang on to them both...too cool to let go...plus they bought me a drink...haha...we now have plans to raid the kraft store...and sell it off the back of a van in chinatown or something...


 

i should adopt coffee shop as a 2nd home.


soo much steak that i couldn't sleep last night....jam pong loves peter lugers too~....


gawd...he must get soo many chicks.


 


hahaha...maria bartiromo has a fan page..oh man i used to love her in the mornings...she seems to have lost her spunk though...i wonder if they'll keep her on cnbc as she ages....a sad reality



 


word of the day....SHIBBY!

azuls - GREAT FOOD...check it out


 


 

**edit**


some guys in corporate america shake hands wayyy to hard...


it almost seems as they are trying to kill you or something...gawD~  its even worse when a small dude shakes hands hard....its like he's compensating for something....haha..or better yet..a woman~...MAN HANDS~


 


 


it has been brought to my attention that my daily regiments of eating, walking or any daily function differs from the normal and mature being...


annie - "what is it that triggers your mind to tell your body to jump into a horse gallop while walking over to the stove...i just don't get you..."


"....i've seen that dance you do while you eat..." as she imitates me bobbing my head back and forth


my goodness...do i really look and act like such a lil boy?...friggin a...her head bobbing imitation reminds me of eddie murphys delirious ice scream segment..."i got my ice cream and you got no ice scream..."


 

i got into umich!


 

funny story over the weekend...


@ el tropicana (more of a hut on the side of the road rather than a club)


a local bahamian comes up to me in the middle of the club..."you like that?...she's my sister...let me hook you up"...annie starts cracking up


....oh man...i get caught staring at the biggest black booty in there...she's wearing something red on top...and some "about to burst" khaki capri's that have have strings at the bottom...what is the deal with my affinity to black women...jeezus...


freeport, bahamas - is definitely not the spring break place to go...seems like i was the only one not informed of this before we went...tried to go on spring break alone...if thats even possible..."drinkity drink"...


lots of conch, seafood platter for every meal, PAIN KILLERS ARE PAIN, bahamian delight (campari, gin, grapefruit) really not too bad, shark tastes nasty...very dry (opted for this over turtle-its said to be FISHY), kayaked in the mangrove...nature walked (red, black, white mangrove, love vines, HEART OF PALM - interesting, fig trees, underwater caves (thunderball cave), juniper, ming, 8 year cycle of burning)...swam with dolphins...lots of stone crab....


IM JINXED - never gonna get to go snorkeling...the bus left without us in PR...and this time in freeport - because we had children in the group...the tour guide didnt want to risk it with with windy conditions...BLAH


 


 


PS...as much as i am a yankee fan...the yankees are disgusting...they dont give you a reason to cheer for sports...they just pay too much to have any reason to justify a decent sporting challenge...blegh...i may like arod...but I LOVE SORIANO~!@!@#!@#!@@!#~!@!@$@#%$!@...not to mention...AROD SHOULD BE PLAYING SS....


also...with a big market city like new york...its hard to rebuild...but its no reason to overpay over the hill players...ie yankees/knicks...definitely laud the tim thomas trade but he's an overpaid underachiever...i always thought the best way was to get 2 stars and then maybe find some cheap counterparts in young underachieving draft picks like darius/kwame/chandler and START THE YOUNG GUYS like sweetney...at least then you get YOUNG STARS to root for...something the knicks NEVER HAVE....who wants to buy an old fogey jersey...jeez...


**i need another early spring biotech surge like last year** CHARGE~


word of the weekend - "cheese doodle"


my alter ego is "eric"

mother friggin fractured the sternum...


 


now it hurts to cough/laugh/sneeze/get up/breathe....


blegh...


 


guess no scuba duba this weekend for me...


gonna catch up on some reading...


bahamas here i come~


 


anyways....


2/21 day trip to mt snow...80 bucks - lift ticket and bus


who's in with me....


 


in other news...


- waskal...wutta sucker...the drug friggin works!...


- i feel as though if purgatory does exist...u'll see greenspan sitting there deciding ur fate...friggin guy...just go away already


-"hedge" is my word of the year, right next to "thesbian" (which has been the word of the year since 6th grade)


 


wowzers:



 


 

i'm neurotic...


think 'american psycho'


i admit it...


read 'plague of ticks' in "naked" - sedaris


 


 

hurting from stowe


but can't wait to go again...


 





SUPER BOWL ECONOMICS

Incremental Analysis, With Two Yards to Go

By DAVID LEONHARDT

Published: February 1, 2004


THE academic paper that David Romer began writing two years ago did not look like something that could determine the outcome of a Super Bowl. Sure, it was an analysis of whether professional football teams punt more often than is rational, but it seemed intended mainly for the amusement of sports fans who happen to be professors.









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Professor Romer, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley, used the phrases "Bellman equation" and "dynamic-programming analysis" - in the paper's title, no less. His footnotes cited work published in Econometrica, Cognitive Science and other publications that are not exactly must-reads in N.F.L. locker rooms.


But when his conclusion - teams punt too much - began getting attention last summer, a reporter asked Bill Belichick, the coach of the New England Patriots, about the paper.


"I read it," he said, according to The Boston Herald. "I don't know much of the math involved, but I think I understand the conclusions and he has some valid points."


Upon hearing that, Professor Romer's jaw dropped, he said. His paper was available only on his Berkeley Internet site, emlab.berkeley.edu /users/dromer, and the site of a group called the National Bureau of Economic Research.


But the most interesting development was yet to come. Two weeks ago, facing a fourth down in the Patriots' own territory on the very first drive of the game - a sure punting situation in the N.F.L. - Belichick decided to go for a first down and made it. The Patriots soon scored a touchdown and were on their way to today's Super Bowl, against the Carolina Panthers.


Football analysts immediately called the decision an instance of a coach's instinct triumphing over cold analysis. In fact, Professor Romer said last week, Belichick seemed to be "throwing gut instinct out the window and going on analysis." The information is right there in Figure 5 of the economist's paper: on fourth and 1 on your own 44-yard line, the potential benefit of keeping the drive going outweighs the cost of giving the opponents good field position.


The coach may not have not been thinking about Professor Romer's paper at that moment, but he has clearly adopted the methods of a social scientist in a way that few other sports coaches have. Belichick, who majored in economics at Wesleyan University, approaches his job much the way a financial analyst pores over a balance sheet. He seems to view every decision as a chance to perform better cost-benefit analysis than his peers do. Richard Miller, a Wesleyan economist with whom the coach remains in touch, calls the approach "incremental analysis." In plain English, it involves looking for subtle differences in one small area that can affect an entire system, whether that system is a company, a stock market or a football game.


Consider the Patriots' behavior when they need just a couple of yards for a first down or a touchdown. No other team ran the ball more often in those situations this season, according to Football Outsiders, an Internet site that analyzes statistics, even though the Patriots are considered to have one of the weaker running games in the league.


The numbers still favor the strategy because running is far more effective in gaining a few yards than passing is. Yet many other teams including the Giants and Jets, which together won four fewer games than New England this year, tried many ineffective pass plays, in an effort to surprise the defense. It's a little like surprising your opponent in chess by letting him capture your queen.


Belichick also seems to understand an idea that economists call "hyperbolic discounting," which holds that people tend to place too much value on the here and now. Taking advantage of this, the team made two trades during last year's draft that essentially swapped a lower pick in 2003 for a higher one in 2004, noted Aaron Schatz, the editor of Football Outsiders. The Patriots will now enter this spring's draft holding many more high picks than a Super Bowl team typically does.


And Professor Romer's paper is not the only ivory-tower research that has made its way into the coach's head. After Harold Sackrowitz, a Rutgers statistician, was quoted in The New York Times and elsewhere saying that teams try for a two-point conversion too often after scoring a touchdown, he received a call from Ernie Adams, the Patriots' football research director and a friend of Mr. Belichick's since they attended Phillips Academy in Andover, Mass., together. The research director sent Professor Sackrowitz a copy of the team's chart telling coaches when to go for two points, and the statistician critiqued it. "Nobody had any real interest other than the Patriots," said Professor Sackrowitz, who now roots for them in addition to the Giants and Jets. New England did not try a single two-point conversion this year.


In the end, none of these moves is nearly as important as designing a defensive strategy or drafting good players. But Belichick's hyper-efficient approach almost certainly gives his team a small advantage in a game that can easily be decided by minor differences.


The approach has also altered the course of Professor Romer's research. When talking about the Berkeley economist's paper this year, Belichick noted that it did not consider the emotional effect that failing on fourth down could have on a team.


Once Professor Romer read that, he ran the analysis again to see whether teams performed worse after being stopped on fourth down. They did not, just as most economists would expect. Come tomorrow, when Belichick will have some time on his hands, he can read the details on the professor's Web site.


compliments of kat:


 


The following is the survival guide for taking a dump at the office.


 


CROP DUSTING: When farting, you walk really fast around the office so the


smell is not in your area and everyone else gets a whiff but doesn't know


where it came from. Be careful when you do this. Do not stop until the full


fart has been expelled. Walk an extra 30 feet to make sure the smell has


left your pants.


 


FLY BY: The act of scouting out a bathroom before pooping. Walk in and


check


for other poopers. If there are others in the bathroom, leave and come back


again. Be careful not to become a FREQUENT FLYER. People may become


suspicious if they catch you constantly going into the bathroom.


 


ESCAPEE: A fart that slips out while taking a leak at the urinal or forcing


a poop in a stall. This is usually accompanied by a sudden wave of


embarrassment. If you release an escapee, do not acknowledge it. Pretend it


did not happen. If you are standing next to th e farter in the urinal,


pretend you did not hear it. No one likes an escapee. It is uncomfortable


for all involved. Making a joke or laughing makes both parties feel uneasy.


 


JAILBREAK: When forcing a poop, several farts slip out at a machine gun


pace. This is usually a side effect of diarrhea or a hangover. If this


should happen, do not panic. Remain in the stall until everyone has left


the bathroom to spare everyone the awkwardness of what just occurred.


 


COURTESY FLUSH: The act of flushing the toilet the instant the poop hits


the


water. This reduces the amount of air time the poop has to stink up the


bathroom. This can help you avoid being caught doing the WALK OF SHAME.


 


WALK OF SHAME: Walking from the stall, to the sink, to the door after you


have just stunk up the bathroom. This can be a very uncomfortable moment if


someone walks in and busts you. As with farts, it is best to pretend that


the smell does not exist. Can be minimized with the use of the COURTESY


FLUSH.


 


OUT OF THE CLOSET POOPER: A colleague who poops at work and is damn proud


of


it. You will often see an Out Of The Closet Pooper enter the bathroom with


a


newspaper or magazine under their arm. Always look around the office for


the


Out Of The Closet Pooper before entering the bathroom.


 


SAFE HAVENS: A seldom used bathroom somewhere in the building where you can


least expect visitors. Try floors that are predominantly of the opposite


sex. This will reduce the odds of a same-sex pooper entering your bathroom.


 


TURD BURGLAR: Someone who does not realize that you are in the stall and


tries to force the door open. This is one of the most shocking and


vulnerable moments that can occur when taking a poop at work. If this


occurs, remain in the stall until the Turd Burglar leaves. This way you


will


avoid all uncomfortable eye contact.


 


CAMO-COUGH: A phony co ugh that alerts all new entrants into the bathroom


that you are in a stall. This can be used to cover-up a WATERMELON, or to


alert potential Turd Burglars. Very effective when used in conjunction with


an ASTAIRE.


 


ASTAIRE: A subtle toe-tap that is used to alert potential Turd Burglars


that


you are occupying a stall. This will remove all doubt that the stall is


occupied. If you hear an Astaire, leave the bathroom immediately so the


pooper can poop in peace.


 


WATERMELON: A poop that creates a loud splash when hitting the toilet


water.


This is also an embarrassing incident. If you feel a Watermelon coming on,


create a diversion. See CAMO-COUGH.


 


HAVANA OMELET: A case of diarrhea that creates a series of loud splashes in


the toilet water. Often accompanied by an Escapee. Try using a Camo-Cough


with an Astaire.


 


UNCLE TED: A bathroom user who seems to linger around forever. Could spend


extended lengths of time in front of the mirror or sitting on the pot. An


Uncle Ted makes it difficult to relax while on the crapper, as


you should always wait to poop when the bathroom is empty. This benefits


you


as well as the other bathroom attendees.

weekday drunkfests....soo good but soo painful...definitely need those every so often...in my case...(once a week)


i semi-remember bits and pieces of "anal sex conversation last night"


yale: new haven is friggin far as hell...2 hours on the damn train my goodness...and are all ivy leagues near the ghetto?...the interview went well...facilities are amazin'...hospital is nice...


bought a helmet and a butt pad...


2 days till stowe...aWWW YEA~


 


maybe i should have gotten this one instead

back at work...


BU SUCKED BALLS...no matter how ready you are for an ass raping...it still gets ya real good from behind...so groggy that i dont' even feel like bending over to tie my shoelaces...=)


hung out at ann's store all day...


www.cassavalounge.com


if u're in boston go check it out..."tea with balls"...give the sandwiches a whirl "garrlic butter makes the world go 'round"


third eye blind - god of wine/motorcycle drive by....perfect morning songs...


i leave you with this...


Michelob Ultra
By ROB WALKER
The idea of a beer with "a health benefit" is debatable, but that's clearly what's resonating.


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/01/magazine/01CONSUMED.html